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DK odds—
DK implied—
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Logged with its DraftKings price.View card → Last 20 games →
The recordRecord of published picks since Oct 27 · 1-unit flat-stake results · Full record →
Record of published picks since Oct 270–0No graded picks yet
Units0.00u1-unit flat stakes
ROI—units ÷ units risked
Hit rate—wins ÷ (wins + losses)
Graded picks0counted once graded
0 graded. Counts every pick we publish, graded wins and losses alike, from the day it is published (Premium picks join the day after release). Picks logged after tip-off are not included. 1-unit flat-stake results, not anyone's actual winnings. Picks aren't guaranteed, and past results don't guarantee future results.
How every pick earns its spot
No hunches. Three checks before anything gets posted.
01
Priced against DraftKings
We take the DraftKings line and price and convert it to an implied probability. That's the number a pick has to beat.
02
Run through the numbers
Last 10, last 20 and season hit rates, then a 10,000-run Monte Carlo model estimate of the stat (model hit %, an estimate, not a result). Edge is our model hit % minus the no-vig fair price, shown only when that fair price was logged with the pick.
03
Posted, then graded
Every pick is time-stamped with its odds when it's logged. In-game picks are tagged LIVE and count. A pick logged after the game started that isn't an in-game pick is left out of the record and every list, win or lose. Then it's graded on the final box score. Wins and losses both stay on the public record.
Today's card
One pick a day is free for everyone. Premium picks unlock with Lockd Premium.
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Locked tiles are placeholders, not a count. Premium picks join the record the day after release, graded wins and losses alike. Picks aren't guaranteed. 21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER.
Free to start
One free pick every day. Sign up to see the whole card.
The daily teaser pick is free, always. Sign up with your email and today's full card unlocks right away. No card needed to sign up. Lockd Premium is $19.99/month, and you can cancel anytime in Whop. The free daily pick and the full public record stay free.
- A free daily pick, logged with its DraftKings price and time-stamp
- DraftKings odds on every pick, plus the last-20 game log when one was saved
- A public record of every published pick, losses included
No pick is guaranteed and nothing here promises a profit. Our record of published picks since Oct 27 is 0–0 (no graded picks yet).
What if you bet with us?
Choose a unit size and a time window. The math runs on every graded pick in the record of published picks (since Oct 27) in that window, losses included.
Loading the record… No graded picks yet.
Latest results
Picks in the live record, newest first. Losses stay on the board.
| Game date | Pick | Odds | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||
The Lockd community
Talk props with people who read the numbers.
The daily card drops in our Discord first. You'll also get line moves, a post-game breakdown of every miss, and a crew that shares its own receipts. 21+ only. Community picks are opinions, not advice.
FAQ
Are these anyone's actual winnings?
No. The record is 1-unit flat-stake results: every pick is logged at the real DraftKings price when it's logged and graded at that price. It isn't anyone's actual winnings, and your results would depend on your own prices and stakes. No pick is guaranteed.
What's your record?
The record counts picks we publish, starting Oct 27, 2026, once they're graded: 0–0, 0.00u (0 graded.) Counts every pick we publish, graded wins and losses alike, from the day it is published (Premium picks join the day after release). Picks logged after tip-off are not included. Voided picks don't count. 1-unit flat-stake results, not anyone's actual winnings.
Do you post parlays?
Yes. Our parlays are 2-leg parlays built from Secure legs, one leg per game, so a single game can't sink both legs. Both legs still have to hit, so a parlay misses more often than either leg alone, and the sportsbook's margin compounds on every leg. Every parlay is logged with its legs and price, graded as one pick and counted in the record. Size them accordingly. Nothing about a parlay is guaranteed.
Does "Secure" mean it can't lose?
No. Secure means likely to hit, not guaranteed. It's our highest-probability tier: alt-line overs priced from about −250 to −150. A pick our model has at 70% should still lose about 3 times in 10, and Secure losses are graded on the record like everything else. "Lock" is an older tag, and those rows keep that label.
What's a unit?
A unit is our standard flat stake. The record is 1-unit flat-stake results, not anyone's actual winnings. If a pick is ever logged at a different stake size, it counts at the stake it was logged with. Results in units let you scale to your own bankroll. Use the calculator to see what the record looks like at $5, $25 or $100 a unit.
Where do the numbers come from?
Lines and prices come from DraftKings as published on ESPN's public odds feed. Game logs and scores come from ESPN's public data. The model hit % comes from 10,000 Monte Carlo runs drawn from each player's recent average and spread. It's a model estimate, not a result.
Where's the community?
On Discord. Use any "Join our Discord" button on this page.
How much does it cost?
The free daily pick and the full public record are free, and signing up is free with no card. Lockd Premium is $19.99/month through Whop, and you can cancel anytime in Whop. Premium picks aren't guaranteed either, and they land on the same public record. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
I think I'm betting too much. Where can I get help?
Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) any time, for free and in confidence. You can also visit ncpgambling.org. Most sportsbooks let you set deposit limits or self-exclude.
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